Scouting Report
David Backes holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Karlsson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Backes wins 43.0% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backes 49.3% vs Karlsson 45.8% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backes 53.6%
Defensive zone
Karlsson 77.1%
Neutral zone
Karlsson 66.8%
Result
William Karlsson favored at 70.9%
29.1%
70.9%
Backes
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Backes
Karlsson
Last 5: Backes 1-4 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backes
1
0
Backes
Karlsson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
4
Backes
Karlsson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backes
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
46.0% (87)
47.2% (786)
-1.2%
Power Play
50.0% (22)
54.5% (11)
-4.5%
Penalty Kill
64.3% (14)
35.6% (163)
+28.7%
On penalty kill, Backes has a +28.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Backes is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (86).
Backes shoots right. Karlsson is 36.7% vs right-shot opponents (371).
Home / Away
Backes
Karlsson
Home
52.6% (19)
46.4% (478)
Away
48.1% (104)
44.2% (482)
By Period
Backes
Karlsson
P1
52.4%
44.8%
P2
55.0%
45.6%
P3
35.9%
45.5%
Final 5 min
56.7%
44.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
48.8%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
45.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2016 | 3 | 03:00 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 13, 2016 | 2 | 09:14 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 13, 2016 | 1 | 19:05 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 13, 2016 | 1 | 17:32 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 13, 2016 | 1 | 02:23 | Offensive | David Backes |