Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Karlsson on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backes 50.4% vs Karlsson 53.6% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backes 53.0%
Defensive zone
Backes 80.2%
Neutral zone
Backes 61.8%
Result
David Backes favored at 60.9%
60.9%
39.1%
Backes
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Backes
Karlsson
Last 8: Backes 2-6 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
1
4
Backes
Karlsson
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Backes
Karlsson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
1
Backes
Karlsson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backes
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (123)
55.5% (659)
-0.2%
Power Play
25.0% (4)
59.3% (172)
-34.3%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (33)
39.1% (128)
-2.7%
On power play, Karlsson has a +34.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Backes is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (115).
Backes shoots right. Karlsson is 58.3% vs right-shot opponents (288).
Home / Away
Backes
Karlsson
Home
46.6% (103)
53.9% (488)
Away
57.9% (57)
54.1% (471)
By Period
Backes
Karlsson
P1
52.1%
50.5%
P2
52.0%
54.8%
P3
48.4%
56.3%
Final 5 min
57.5%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
50.6%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
54.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2021 | 3 | 13:26 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Apr 24, 2021 | 3 | 00:35 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Apr 24, 2021 | 2 | 12:28 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Feb 11, 2021 | 3 | 18:03 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Feb 11, 2021 | 3 | 04:43 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Feb 11, 2021 | 2 | 07:42 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Feb 11, 2021 | 2 | 03:43 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Feb 11, 2021 | 1 | 06:54 | Offensive | William Karlsson |