Scouting Report
David Desharnais holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Kelly wins 43.3% vs left-shot opponents — Desharnais shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 47.4% vs Desharnais 48.8% (-6.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Desharnais 80.1%
Defensive zone
Desharnais 61.5%
Neutral zone
Desharnais 70.5%
Result
David Desharnais favored at 65.4%
34.6%
65.4%
Kelly
Desharnais
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Kelly
Desharnais
Last 7: Kelly 5-2 Desharnais
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
3
1
Kelly
Desharnais
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
2
1
Kelly
Desharnais
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Desharnais
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (33)
46.9% (704)
-1.4%
Power Play
0.0% (1)
64.5% (93)
-64.5%
Penalty Kill
38.9% (18)
16.7% (6)
+22.2%
On power play, Desharnais has a +64.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Desharnais shoots left. Kelly is 43.3% vs left-shot opponents (30).
Kelly shoots left. Desharnais is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (522).
Home / Away
Kelly
Desharnais
Home
43.5% (23)
50.8% (374)
Away
41.4% (29)
46.9% (429)
By Period
Kelly
Desharnais
P1
64.3%
46.0%
P2
31.6%
50.2%
P3
36.8%
50.2%
Final 5 min
21.1%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
42.3%
Desharnais
56.0%▲
54.5%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2015 | 3 | 01:51 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 10, 2015 | 2 | 19:59 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 10, 2015 | 2 | 06:30 | Neutral | David Desharnais |
| Oct 10, 2015 | 2 | 03:32 | Defensive | David Desharnais |
| Oct 10, 2015 | 2 | 00:50 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 10, 2015 | 1 | 05:24 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 10, 2015 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |