Scouting Report
David Gustafsson holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Dewar on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Dewar wins 42.6% vs left-shot opponents — Gustafsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dewar 45.1% vs Gustafsson 49.5% (-5.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gustafsson 77.8%
Defensive zone
Gustafsson 64.1%
Neutral zone
Gustafsson 69.9%
Result
David Gustafsson favored at 72.9%
27.1%
72.9%
Dewar
Gustafsson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Dewar
Gustafsson
Last 8: Dewar 5-3 Gustafsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dewar
2
1
Dewar
Gustafsson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dewar
3
2
Dewar
Gustafsson
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dewar
Gustafsson
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (443)
51.1% (182)
-5.7%
Power Play
75.0% (8)
44.4% (9)
+30.6%
Penalty Kill
28.8% (52)
33.3% (18)
-4.5%
On power play, Dewar has a +30.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gustafsson shoots left. Dewar is 42.6% vs left-shot opponents (333).
Dewar shoots left. Gustafsson is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (134).
Home / Away
Dewar
Gustafsson
Home
43.3% (238)
54.2% (96)
Away
44.9% (265)
45.1% (113)
By Period
Dewar
Gustafsson
P1
41.7%
58.5%
P2
46.1%
39.5%
P3
44.4%
51.5%
Final 5 min
44.4%
58.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dewar
44.0%▬
43.5%
44.1%
Gustafsson
58.0%▲
50.0%
49.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2022 | 3 | 19:54 | Offensive | David Gustafsson |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 3 | 19:38 | Offensive | Connor Dewar |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 3 | 19:32 | Offensive | Connor Dewar |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 3 | 17:55 | Neutral | David Gustafsson |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 3 | 04:09 | Neutral | David Gustafsson |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 1 | 18:46 | Neutral | Connor Dewar |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 2 | 07:14 | Neutral | Connor Dewar |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 2 | 02:50 | Neutral | Connor Dewar |