Scouting Report
David Krejci holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Ellis on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Krejci wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Ellis shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Krejci 51.9% vs Ellis 48.5% (+4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Krejci 60.2%
Defensive zone
Ellis 72.5%
Neutral zone
Ellis 64.1%
Result
Matt Ellis favored at 56.0%
44.0%
56.0%
Krejci
Ellis
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Krejci
Ellis
Last 8: Krejci 3-5 Ellis
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Krejci
3
0
Krejci
Ellis
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ellis
0
1
Krejci
Ellis
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ellis
0
4
Krejci
Ellis
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Krejci
Ellis
Edge
Even Strength
52.0% (835)
48.0% (223)
+4.0%
Power Play
53.4% (163)
0.0% (1)
+53.4%
Penalty Kill
51.4% (37)
50.0% (20)
+1.4%
On power play, Krejci has a +53.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ellis shoots left. Krejci is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (776).
Krejci shoots right. Ellis is 39.8% vs right-shot opponents (83).
Home / Away
Krejci
Ellis
Home
56.8% (525)
51.4% (107)
Away
47.3% (520)
45.3% (137)
By Period
Krejci
Ellis
P1
51.4%
46.7%
P2
57.5%
47.3%
P3
46.8%
50.8%
Final 5 min
52.6%
43.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Krejci
36.0%▼
43.5%
52.1%
Ellis
42.0%▼
49.0%
48.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2012 | 3 | 09:56 | Neutral | Matt Ellis |
| Apr 7, 2012 | 1 | 17:48 | Offensive | David Krejci |
| Apr 7, 2012 | 1 | 15:32 | Neutral | Matt Ellis |
| Apr 7, 2012 | 1 | 15:27 | Defensive | Matt Ellis |
| Mar 8, 2012 | 3 | 08:16 | Neutral | Matt Ellis |
| Mar 8, 2012 | 1 | 07:24 | Offensive | David Krejci |
| Nov 23, 2011 | 2 | 16:00 | Neutral | Matt Ellis |
| Nov 12, 2011 | 2 | 05:20 | Offensive | David Krejci |