Scouting Report
Derek MacKenzie holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Wilson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Wilson wins 44.3% vs left-shot opponents — MacKenzie shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Wilson 48.2% vs MacKenzie 51.7% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKenzie 54.0%
Defensive zone
MacKenzie 89.1%
Neutral zone
MacKenzie 69.9%
Result
Derek MacKenzie favored at 68.6%
31.4%
68.6%
Wilson
MacKenzie
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Wilson
MacKenzie
Last 7: Wilson 5-2 MacKenzie
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Wilson
3
0
Wilson
MacKenzie
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
0
2
Wilson
MacKenzie
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Wilson
2
0
Wilson
MacKenzie
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Wilson
MacKenzie
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (125)
51.8% (384)
-6.2%
Power Play
49.0% (102)
50.0% (24)
-1.0%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
52.5% (61)
+47.5%
On penalty kill, Wilson has a +47.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKenzie shoots left. Wilson is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (185).
Wilson shoots left. MacKenzie is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (323).
Home / Away
Wilson
MacKenzie
Home
47.3% (110)
51.7% (232)
Away
47.5% (118)
52.3% (241)
By Period
Wilson
MacKenzie
P1
56.7%
47.9%
P2
37.2%
51.8%
P3
51.4%
55.4%
OT
0.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
47.5%
49.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Wilson
38.0%▼
47.0%
47.4%
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2011 | 2 | 03:18 | Offensive | Colin Wilson |
| Feb 22, 2011 | 1 | 17:12 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Jan 2, 2011 | 3 | 11:01 | Offensive | Colin Wilson |
| Dec 1, 2010 | 2 | 04:53 | Neutral | Colin Wilson |
| Dec 1, 2010 | 1 | 06:10 | Offensive | Colin Wilson |
| Nov 22, 2010 | 3 | 12:51 | Neutral | Colin Wilson |
| Nov 22, 2010 | 2 | 03:11 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |