Scouting Report
Derek MacKenzie holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKenzie on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). MacKenzie wins 44.7% vs right-shot opponents — Stepan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKenzie 51.3% vs Stepan 45.5% (+6.3%)
H2H factor
MacKenzie leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKenzie 71.1%
Defensive zone
MacKenzie 93.8%
Neutral zone
MacKenzie 86.1%
Result
Derek MacKenzie favored at 82.4%
82.4%
17.6%
MacKenzie
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
2
(10 meetings)
8
2
MacKenzie
Stepan
Last 10: MacKenzie 8-2 Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
3
1
MacKenzie
Stepan
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
2
1
MacKenzie
Stepan
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
3
0
MacKenzie
Stepan
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKenzie
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (377)
43.8% (1,141)
+11.1%
Power Play
63.6% (11)
52.2% (253)
+11.4%
Penalty Kill
38.5% (109)
43.2% (118)
-4.7%
On power play, MacKenzie has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. MacKenzie is 44.7% vs right-shot opponents (215).
MacKenzie shoots left. Stepan is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,028).
Home / Away
MacKenzie
Stepan
Home
51.9% (237)
47.8% (828)
Away
51.2% (260)
42.0% (684)
By Period
MacKenzie
Stepan
P1
49.7%
49.5%
P2
50.6%
42.0%
P3
53.5%
44.3%
OT
100.0%
41.2%
Final 5 min
49.1%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
51.5%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2014 | 3 | 01:56 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Mar 21, 2014 | 2 | 14:16 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Dec 12, 2013 | 3 | 19:00 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Dec 12, 2013 | 3 | 18:44 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 12, 2013 | 3 | 14:38 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Dec 12, 2013 | 2 | 15:51 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Nov 7, 2013 | 3 | 11:25 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Nov 7, 2013 | 3 | 11:12 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 7, 2013 | 3 | 02:09 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Nov 7, 2013 | 1 | 15:48 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |