Scouting Report
Derek MacKenzie holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. MacKenzie wins 44.6% vs right-shot opponents — Stepan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKenzie 50.0% vs Stepan 47.2% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 87.1%
Defensive zone
MacKenzie 56.4%
Neutral zone
Stepan 62.8%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 64.5%
35.5%
64.5%
MacKenzie
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
MacKenzie
Stepan
Last 6: MacKenzie 1-5 Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
0
2
MacKenzie
Stepan
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
MacKenzie
Stepan
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
0
2
MacKenzie
Stepan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKenzie
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (564)
48.2% (1,155)
+4.3%
Power Play
77.8% (9)
48.2% (193)
+29.6%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (199)
37.9% (174)
+3.8%
On power play, MacKenzie has a +29.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. MacKenzie is 44.6% vs right-shot opponents (305).
MacKenzie shoots left. Stepan is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,064).
Home / Away
MacKenzie
Stepan
Home
52.7% (404)
46.4% (774)
Away
47.0% (368)
47.7% (748)
By Period
MacKenzie
Stepan
P1
50.0%
46.7%
P2
50.0%
46.3%
P3
49.4%
48.1%
OT
80.0%
47.6%
Final 5 min
55.0%
46.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
50.0%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
47.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2017 | 2 | 14:00 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 17, 2017 | 1 | 09:41 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 7, 2017 | 3 | 08:15 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Mar 7, 2017 | 3 | 06:41 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 7, 2017 | 3 | 05:08 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 20, 2016 | 1 | 02:21 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |