Scouting Report
Eric Staal holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKenzie on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). MacKenzie wins 56.7% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKenzie 51.3% vs Staal 52.5% (-1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 83.6%
Defensive zone
MacKenzie 83.4%
Neutral zone
MacKenzie 51.1%
Result
Derek MacKenzie favored at 57.5%
57.5%
42.5%
MacKenzie
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
MacKenzie
Staal
Last 9: MacKenzie 7-2 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
1
2
MacKenzie
Staal
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
5
0
MacKenzie
Staal
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
1
0
MacKenzie
Staal
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKenzie
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (377)
52.0% (1,126)
+2.9%
Power Play
63.6% (11)
56.5% (239)
+7.1%
Penalty Kill
38.5% (109)
50.8% (65)
-12.3%
On penalty kill, Staal has a +12.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. MacKenzie is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (282).
MacKenzie shoots left. Staal is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (914).
Home / Away
MacKenzie
Staal
Home
51.9% (237)
56.7% (727)
Away
51.2% (260)
48.6% (703)
By Period
MacKenzie
Staal
P1
49.7%
50.9%
P2
50.6%
54.7%
P3
53.5%
51.9%
OT
100.0%
60.9%
Final 5 min
49.1%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
51.5%
Staal
44.0%▼
47.0%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2014 | 3 | 07:51 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Jan 27, 2014 | 3 | 14:05 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Jan 27, 2014 | 3 | 12:12 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Jan 27, 2014 | 2 | 07:15 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Dec 23, 2013 | 3 | 08:04 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Dec 23, 2013 | 3 | 07:59 | Offensive | Eric Staal |
| Dec 23, 2013 | 3 | 02:32 | Offensive | Eric Staal |
| Dec 23, 2013 | 2 | 15:56 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Dec 23, 2013 | 1 | 10:25 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |