Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.8% vs 54.8%). MacKenzie wins 53.1% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKenzie 54.3% vs Spezza 54.4% (+0.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 66.2%
Defensive zone
MacKenzie 83.3%
Neutral zone
MacKenzie 53.7%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 59.6%
40.4%
59.6%
MacKenzie
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
MacKenzie
Spezza
Last 6: MacKenzie 4-2 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
MacKenzie
Spezza
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
2
0
MacKenzie
Spezza
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKenzie
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (523)
53.2% (763)
+2.6%
Power Play
52.4% (21)
60.9% (197)
-8.5%
Penalty Kill
52.9% (257)
57.1% (21)
-4.2%
On power play, Spezza has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. MacKenzie is 53.1% vs right-shot opponents (307).
MacKenzie shoots left. Spezza is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (675).
Home / Away
MacKenzie
Spezza
Home
54.4% (463)
57.5% (518)
Away
55.3% (338)
51.8% (463)
By Period
MacKenzie
Spezza
P1
54.2%
55.4%
P2
54.0%
54.1%
P3
56.7%
55.5%
OT
33.3%
25.0%
Final 5 min
52.6%
59.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
54.8%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2015 | 3 | 10:15 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Oct 24, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Oct 24, 2015 | 2 | 10:10 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Oct 24, 2015 | 1 | 02:14 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 17, 2015 | 2 | 18:24 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 17, 2015 | 1 | 14:31 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |