Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.5% vs 51.7%). Look for Beagle on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). MacKenzie wins 44.7% vs right-shot opponents — Beagle shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKenzie 51.3% vs Beagle 51.4% (-0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Beagle 52.9%
Defensive zone
MacKenzie 61.2%
Neutral zone
Beagle 52.2%
Result
Jay Beagle favored at 52.4%
47.6%
52.4%
MacKenzie
Beagle
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
MacKenzie
Beagle
Last 6: MacKenzie 2-4 Beagle
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
MacKenzie
Beagle
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Beagle
1
3
MacKenzie
Beagle
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKenzie
Beagle
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (377)
51.2% (514)
+3.7%
Power Play
63.6% (11)
38.9% (18)
+24.7%
Penalty Kill
38.5% (109)
63.4% (41)
-24.9%
On penalty kill, Beagle has a +24.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Beagle shoots right. MacKenzie is 44.7% vs right-shot opponents (215).
MacKenzie shoots left. Beagle is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (401).
Home / Away
MacKenzie
Beagle
Home
51.9% (237)
57.1% (280)
Away
51.2% (260)
46.4% (293)
By Period
MacKenzie
Beagle
P1
49.7%
46.5%
P2
50.6%
56.3%
P3
53.5%
52.0%
Final 5 min
49.1%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
51.5%
Beagle
50.0%▼
53.0%
51.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 30, 2014 | 3 | 18:57 | Offensive | Jay Beagle |
| Jan 30, 2014 | 3 | 04:32 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Jan 30, 2014 | 3 | 04:22 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Jan 17, 2014 | 3 | 17:25 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Jan 17, 2014 | 2 | 02:47 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Jan 17, 2014 | 1 | 19:08 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |