Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKenzie on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). MacKenzie wins 53.0% vs left-shot opponents — Thornton shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKenzie 52.9% vs Thornton 57.3% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 77.3%
Defensive zone
MacKenzie 51.6%
Neutral zone
Thornton 63.8%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 58.0%
42.0%
58.0%
MacKenzie
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
MacKenzie
Thornton
Last 6: MacKenzie 4-2 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
0
2
MacKenzie
Thornton
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
4
0
MacKenzie
Thornton
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKenzie
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
55.1% (737)
58.7% (722)
-3.6%
Power Play
36.8% (19)
58.5% (147)
-21.7%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (266)
51.2% (86)
-2.3%
On power play, Thornton has a +21.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. MacKenzie is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (662).
MacKenzie shoots left. Thornton is 59.3% vs left-shot opponents (528).
Home / Away
MacKenzie
Thornton
Home
54.9% (506)
60.1% (496)
Away
51.4% (516)
55.8% (459)
By Period
MacKenzie
Thornton
P1
54.5%
60.4%
P2
55.6%
54.7%
P3
48.2%
58.2%
OT
70.0%
61.5%
Final 5 min
53.0%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
53.1%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
58.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2014 | 3 | 13:07 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Nov 20, 2014 | 2 | 13:16 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Nov 20, 2014 | 2 | 05:00 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Nov 20, 2014 | 2 | 04:41 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 20, 2014 | 1 | 12:36 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Nov 20, 2014 | 1 | 05:56 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |