Scouting Report
Derek MacKenzie holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKenzie on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). MacKenzie wins 55.9% vs left-shot opponents — Thornton shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKenzie 54.3% vs Thornton 52.6% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 60.3%
Defensive zone
MacKenzie 88.0%
Neutral zone
MacKenzie 57.6%
Result
Derek MacKenzie favored at 70.5%
70.5%
29.5%
MacKenzie
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
MacKenzie
Thornton
Last 9: MacKenzie 6-3 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
MacKenzie
Thornton
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
4
1
MacKenzie
Thornton
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
MacKenzie
Thornton
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKenzie
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (523)
51.8% (577)
+4.0%
Power Play
52.4% (21)
57.7% (168)
-5.3%
Penalty Kill
52.9% (257)
37.5% (8)
+15.4%
On penalty kill, MacKenzie has a +15.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. MacKenzie is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (494).
MacKenzie shoots left. Thornton is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (449).
Home / Away
MacKenzie
Thornton
Home
54.4% (463)
53.0% (379)
Away
55.3% (338)
52.9% (374)
By Period
MacKenzie
Thornton
P1
54.2%
53.3%
P2
54.0%
50.7%
P3
56.7%
54.3%
OT
33.3%
62.5%
Final 5 min
52.6%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
54.8%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
53.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2016 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Feb 18, 2016 | 2 | 18:45 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Feb 18, 2016 | 2 | 09:44 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Nov 5, 2015 | 3 | 05:32 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Nov 5, 2015 | 3 | 04:21 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 5, 2015 | 3 | 03:56 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Nov 5, 2015 | 2 | 10:47 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 5, 2015 | 1 | 14:57 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Nov 5, 2015 | 1 | 02:48 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |