Scouting Report
Derek MacKenzie holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. MacKenzie wins 53.5% vs left-shot opponents — Larsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKenzie 50.0% vs Larsson 49.1% (+1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larsson 70.4%
Defensive zone
Larsson 54.2%
Neutral zone
Larsson 58.1%
Result
Johan Larsson favored at 62.3%
37.7%
62.3%
MacKenzie
Larsson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
MacKenzie
Larsson
Last 5: MacKenzie 1-4 Larsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larsson
0
2
MacKenzie
Larsson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larsson
0
1
MacKenzie
Larsson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
MacKenzie
Larsson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKenzie
Larsson
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (564)
48.9% (501)
+3.6%
Power Play
77.8% (9)
50.0% (6)
+27.8%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (199)
50.0% (26)
-8.3%
On power play, MacKenzie has a +27.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larsson shoots left. MacKenzie is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (467).
MacKenzie shoots left. Larsson is 48.1% vs left-shot opponents (347).
Home / Away
MacKenzie
Larsson
Home
52.7% (404)
51.7% (265)
Away
47.0% (368)
46.3% (268)
By Period
MacKenzie
Larsson
P1
50.0%
58.8%
P2
50.0%
44.1%
P3
49.4%
44.0%
OT
80.0%
71.4%
Final 5 min
55.0%
44.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
50.0%
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2016 | 1 | 16:09 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Dec 20, 2016 | 1 | 07:53 | Offensive | Johan Larsson |
| Oct 29, 2016 | 3 | 19:03 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Oct 29, 2016 | 2 | 09:12 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Oct 29, 2016 | 1 | 10:17 | Offensive | Johan Larsson |