Scouting Report
Derek MacKenzie holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Madden on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). MacKenzie wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Madden shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKenzie 53.0% vs Madden 50.6% (+2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Madden 65.2%
Defensive zone
Madden 66.0%
Neutral zone
Madden 64.2%
Result
John Madden favored at 65.5%
34.5%
65.5%
MacKenzie
Madden
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
4
(4 meetings)
0
4
MacKenzie
Madden
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Madden
0
3
MacKenzie
Madden
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Madden
0
1
MacKenzie
Madden
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKenzie
Madden
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (3,660)
51.2% (1,083)
+3.7%
Power Play
55.9% (102)
51.5% (33)
+4.4%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (1,158)
47.6% (164)
-0.9%
On power play, MacKenzie has a +4.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Madden shoots left. MacKenzie is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (3,097).
MacKenzie shoots left. Madden is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (872).
Home / Away
MacKenzie
Madden
Home
54.0% (2,527)
52.7% (678)
Away
52.1% (2,398)
48.5% (623)
By Period
MacKenzie
Madden
P1
51.9%
51.5%
P2
53.0%
52.5%
P3
54.0%
47.6%
OT
65.7%
62.5%
Final 5 min
52.9%
50.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
53.1%
Madden
54.0%▲
50.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2011 | 2 | 13:46 | Defensive | John Madden |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 2 | 11:34 | Defensive | John Madden |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 2 | 02:03 | Defensive | John Madden |
| Oct 16, 2010 | 3 | 04:47 | Neutral | John Madden |