Scouting Report
Derek MacKenzie holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). MacKenzie wins 53.5% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKenzie 50.0% vs Hayes 46.1% (+4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 71.1%
Defensive zone
Hayes 74.0%
Neutral zone
Hayes 75.6%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 73.7%
26.3%
73.7%
MacKenzie
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
MacKenzie
Hayes
Last 5: MacKenzie 1-4 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
0
1
MacKenzie
Hayes
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
0
3
MacKenzie
Hayes
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
1
0
MacKenzie
Hayes
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKenzie
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (564)
45.4% (788)
+7.1%
Power Play
77.8% (9)
50.0% (56)
+27.8%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (199)
45.2% (124)
-3.5%
On power play, MacKenzie has a +27.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. MacKenzie is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (467).
MacKenzie shoots left. Hayes is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
MacKenzie
Hayes
Home
52.7% (404)
46.6% (459)
Away
47.0% (368)
44.8% (509)
By Period
MacKenzie
Hayes
P1
50.0%
43.0%
P2
50.0%
49.5%
P3
49.4%
44.7%
OT
80.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
55.0%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
50.0%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
45.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2017 | 3 | 19:32 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 17, 2017 | 3 | 07:31 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 17, 2017 | 3 | 07:23 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Mar 17, 2017 | 2 | 02:41 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 17, 2017 | 1 | 01:45 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |