Scouting Report
Derek MacKenzie holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKenzie on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). MacKenzie wins 56.0% vs left-shot opponents — Stajan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKenzie 53.7% vs Stajan 51.6% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stajan 52.9%
Defensive zone
Stajan 57.0%
Neutral zone
Stajan 52.0%
Result
Matt Stajan favored at 54.5%
45.5%
54.5%
MacKenzie
Stajan
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
MacKenzie
Stajan
Last 6: MacKenzie 3-3 Stajan
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
2
1
MacKenzie
Stajan
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stajan
1
2
MacKenzie
Stajan
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKenzie
Stajan
Edge
Even Strength
55.1% (370)
53.0% (509)
+2.1%
Power Play
55.6% (9)
41.4% (29)
+14.2%
Penalty Kill
49.0% (49)
48.0% (98)
+1.0%
On power play, MacKenzie has a +14.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stajan shoots left. MacKenzie is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (293).
MacKenzie shoots left. Stajan is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (442).
Home / Away
MacKenzie
Stajan
Home
56.1% (228)
53.8% (353)
Away
52.7% (201)
49.3% (286)
By Period
MacKenzie
Stajan
P1
53.4%
52.0%
P2
55.1%
52.0%
P3
53.9%
51.0%
OT
100.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
54.2%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
54.5%
Stajan
50.0%▬
49.5%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 21, 2011 | 3 | 04:48 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Nov 21, 2011 | 3 | 02:00 | Defensive | Matt Stajan |
| Nov 21, 2011 | 2 | 10:41 | Neutral | Matt Stajan |
| Nov 21, 2011 | 2 | 10:32 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Nov 21, 2011 | 2 | 02:36 | Neutral | Matt Stajan |
| Nov 21, 2011 | 1 | 05:09 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |