Scouting Report
Nate Thompson holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). MacKenzie wins 53.5% vs left-shot opponents — Thompson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKenzie 50.0% vs Thompson 52.2% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKenzie 50.6%
Defensive zone
MacKenzie 82.4%
Neutral zone
MacKenzie 60.4%
Result
Derek MacKenzie favored at 62.9%
62.9%
37.1%
MacKenzie
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
MacKenzie
Thompson
Last 5: MacKenzie 1-4 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
1
MacKenzie
Thompson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
1
0
MacKenzie
Thompson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
3
MacKenzie
Thompson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKenzie
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (564)
56.3% (199)
-3.8%
Power Play
77.8% (9)
66.7% (6)
+11.1%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (199)
35.0% (40)
+6.7%
On power play, MacKenzie has a +11.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots left. MacKenzie is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (467).
MacKenzie shoots left. Thompson is 55.1% vs left-shot opponents (138).
Home / Away
MacKenzie
Thompson
Home
52.7% (404)
59.5% (116)
Away
47.0% (368)
47.3% (129)
By Period
MacKenzie
Thompson
P1
50.0%
47.4%
P2
50.0%
56.2%
P3
49.4%
55.1%
Final 5 min
55.0%
57.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
50.0%
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2017 | 2 | 10:08 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Feb 17, 2017 | 2 | 06:58 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Feb 17, 2017 | 1 | 02:22 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |
| Feb 3, 2017 | 2 | 12:49 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Feb 3, 2017 | 2 | 12:43 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |