Scouting Report
Derek MacKenzie holds a +19.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Schmaltz on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). MacKenzie wins 44.6% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKenzie 50.0% vs Schmaltz 36.0% (+19.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 88.5%
Defensive zone
MacKenzie 72.1%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 65.0%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 69.2%
30.8%
69.2%
MacKenzie
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
MacKenzie
Schmaltz
Last 8: MacKenzie 3-5 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
0
3
MacKenzie
Schmaltz
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
1
0
MacKenzie
Schmaltz
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
MacKenzie
Schmaltz
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKenzie
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (564)
29.6% (253)
+22.9%
Power Play
77.8% (9)
50.0% (18)
+27.8%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (199)
0.0% (1)
+41.7%
On penalty kill, MacKenzie has a +41.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. MacKenzie is 44.6% vs right-shot opponents (305).
MacKenzie shoots left. Schmaltz is 28.4% vs left-shot opponents (176).
Home / Away
MacKenzie
Schmaltz
Home
52.7% (404)
33.1% (139)
Away
47.0% (368)
28.6% (133)
By Period
MacKenzie
Schmaltz
P1
50.0%
28.8%
P2
50.0%
31.7%
P3
49.4%
31.6%
Final 5 min
55.0%
39.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
50.0%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
30.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2017 | 3 | 02:02 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 25, 2017 | 2 | 17:24 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Nov 29, 2016 | 3 | 09:26 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Nov 29, 2016 | 2 | 06:08 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Nov 29, 2016 | 2 | 05:55 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Nov 29, 2016 | 2 | 05:46 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Nov 29, 2016 | 2 | 03:04 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Nov 29, 2016 | 1 | 02:25 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |