Scouting Report
Derek MacKenzie holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Nash on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). MacKenzie wins 44.7% vs right-shot opponents — Nash shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKenzie 51.3% vs Nash 46.5% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nash 88.5%
Defensive zone
Nash 54.5%
Neutral zone
Nash 71.7%
Result
Riley Nash favored at 81.3%
18.7%
81.3%
MacKenzie
Nash
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
MacKenzie
Nash
Last 7: MacKenzie 1-6 Nash
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nash
0
4
MacKenzie
Nash
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nash
1
2
MacKenzie
Nash
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKenzie
Nash
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (377)
46.0% (615)
+8.9%
Power Play
63.6% (11)
58.6% (29)
+5.0%
Penalty Kill
38.5% (109)
27.3% (22)
+11.2%
On penalty kill, MacKenzie has a +11.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nash shoots right. MacKenzie is 44.7% vs right-shot opponents (215).
MacKenzie shoots left. Nash is 44.1% vs left-shot opponents (451).
Home / Away
MacKenzie
Nash
Home
51.9% (237)
54.1% (320)
Away
51.2% (260)
38.4% (346)
By Period
MacKenzie
Nash
P1
49.7%
44.8%
P2
50.6%
47.5%
P3
53.5%
44.9%
OT
100.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
49.1%
44.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
51.5%
Nash
48.0%▼
49.5%
45.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2014 | 3 | 06:01 | Offensive | Riley Nash |
| Mar 29, 2014 | 3 | 02:41 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Mar 29, 2014 | 2 | 05:20 | Offensive | Riley Nash |
| Mar 29, 2014 | 1 | 05:11 | Neutral | Riley Nash |
| Jan 27, 2014 | 2 | 02:40 | Offensive | Riley Nash |
| Jan 27, 2014 | 2 | 02:36 | Offensive | Riley Nash |
| Dec 23, 2013 | 2 | 15:39 | Neutral | Riley Nash |