Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Johansen on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). MacKenzie wins 44.6% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKenzie 50.0% vs Johansen 54.3% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johansen 56.5%
Defensive zone
MacKenzie 85.5%
Neutral zone
MacKenzie 66.4%
Result
Derek MacKenzie favored at 55.5%
55.5%
44.5%
MacKenzie
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
MacKenzie
Johansen
Last 7: MacKenzie 1-6 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
0
5
MacKenzie
Johansen
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
MacKenzie
Johansen
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKenzie
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (564)
54.0% (1,251)
-1.5%
Power Play
77.8% (9)
58.9% (158)
+18.9%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (199)
55.6% (63)
-13.9%
On power play, MacKenzie has a +18.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. MacKenzie is 44.6% vs right-shot opponents (305).
MacKenzie shoots left. Johansen is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,042).
Home / Away
MacKenzie
Johansen
Home
52.7% (404)
56.3% (746)
Away
47.0% (368)
52.8% (726)
By Period
MacKenzie
Johansen
P1
50.0%
54.0%
P2
50.0%
53.8%
P3
49.4%
55.7%
OT
80.0%
59.1%
Final 5 min
55.0%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
50.0%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2017 | 2 | 18:13 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 11, 2017 | 1 | 16:48 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 11, 2017 | 1 | 09:15 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Jan 6, 2017 | 3 | 15:26 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Jan 6, 2017 | 3 | 15:14 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Jan 6, 2017 | 2 | 10:22 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Jan 6, 2017 | 1 | 02:57 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |