Scouting Report
Derek MacKenzie holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Koivu on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 9 meetings). MacKenzie wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Koivu shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKenzie 53.0% vs Koivu 51.8% (+1.3%)
H2H factor
Koivu leads 16-12 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
Koivu 58.9%
Defensive zone
Koivu 58.2%
Neutral zone
Koivu 58.9%
Result
Saku Koivu favored at 58.7%
41.3%
58.7%
MacKenzie
Koivu
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
16
(28 meetings)
12
16
MacKenzie
Koivu
Last 10: MacKenzie 3-7 Koivu
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
6
5
MacKenzie
Koivu
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Koivu
3
5
MacKenzie
Koivu
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Koivu
3
6
MacKenzie
Koivu
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKenzie
Koivu
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (3,660)
51.9% (3,221)
+3.0%
Power Play
55.9% (102)
59.3% (437)
-3.4%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (1,158)
48.0% (764)
-1.3%
On power play, Koivu has a +3.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Koivu shoots left. MacKenzie is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (3,097).
MacKenzie shoots left. Koivu is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,153).
Home / Away
MacKenzie
Koivu
Home
54.0% (2,527)
53.5% (2,281)
Away
52.1% (2,398)
50.1% (2,209)
By Period
MacKenzie
Koivu
P1
51.9%
51.1%
P2
53.0%
52.6%
P3
54.0%
51.8%
OT
65.7%
52.3%
Final 5 min
52.9%
55.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
53.1%
Koivu
46.0%▼
50.0%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 3, 2014 | 2 | 02:23 | Defensive | Saku Koivu |
| Mar 31, 2013 | 1 | 19:12 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Feb 18, 2013 | 2 | 13:10 | Neutral | Saku Koivu |
| Feb 18, 2013 | 1 | 04:29 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Feb 18, 2013 | 3 | 09:24 | Offensive | Saku Koivu |
| Feb 12, 2012 | 3 | 05:27 | Neutral | Saku Koivu |
| Feb 12, 2012 | 2 | 03:49 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Feb 12, 2012 | 1 | 14:34 | Defensive | Saku Koivu |
| Feb 3, 2012 | 3 | 07:14 | Neutral | Saku Koivu |
| Feb 3, 2012 | 3 | 07:09 | Neutral | Saku Koivu |
| Feb 3, 2012 | 3 | 03:28 | Defensive | Saku Koivu |
| Jan 8, 2012 | 3 | 13:15 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Oct 30, 2011 | 3 | 15:36 | Neutral | Saku Koivu |
| Oct 30, 2011 | 2 | 02:54 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Oct 30, 2011 | 2 | 00:53 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Oct 30, 2011 | 1 | 17:45 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Oct 30, 2011 | 1 | 14:32 | Neutral | Saku Koivu |
| Oct 30, 2011 | 1 | 12:38 | Offensive | Saku Koivu |
| Oct 30, 2011 | 1 | 05:07 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Jan 25, 2011 | 3 | 10:14 | Defensive | Saku Koivu |