Scouting Report
Derek MacKenzie holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Horcoff on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). MacKenzie wins 53.0% vs left-shot opponents — Horcoff shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKenzie 52.9% vs Horcoff 50.2% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Horcoff 74.6%
Defensive zone
Horcoff 57.4%
Neutral zone
Horcoff 66.2%
Result
Shawn Horcoff favored at 69.8%
30.2%
69.8%
MacKenzie
Horcoff
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
7
(7 meetings)
0
7
MacKenzie
Horcoff
Last 7: MacKenzie 0-7 Horcoff
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Horcoff
0
3
MacKenzie
Horcoff
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Horcoff
0
4
MacKenzie
Horcoff
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKenzie
Horcoff
Edge
Even Strength
55.1% (737)
50.5% (374)
+4.6%
Power Play
36.8% (19)
55.0% (60)
-18.2%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (266)
39.5% (38)
+9.4%
On power play, Horcoff has a +18.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Horcoff shoots left. MacKenzie is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (662).
MacKenzie shoots left. Horcoff is 48.6% vs left-shot opponents (315).
Home / Away
MacKenzie
Horcoff
Home
54.9% (506)
50.2% (263)
Away
51.4% (516)
50.2% (209)
By Period
MacKenzie
Horcoff
P1
54.5%
49.0%
P2
55.6%
53.2%
P3
48.2%
48.7%
OT
70.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
53.0%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
53.1%
Horcoff
62.0%▲
55.5%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2015 | 3 | 16:40 | Neutral | Shawn Horcoff |
| Mar 5, 2015 | 3 | 09:18 | Offensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Mar 5, 2015 | 3 | 09:06 | Neutral | Shawn Horcoff |
| Mar 5, 2015 | 1 | 09:53 | Offensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Mar 5, 2015 | 1 | 07:06 | Offensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Feb 13, 2015 | 3 | 02:31 | Neutral | Shawn Horcoff |
| Feb 13, 2015 | 2 | 17:23 | Neutral | Shawn Horcoff |