Scouting Report
Derek MacKenzie holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKenzie on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). MacKenzie wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Begin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKenzie 53.0% vs Begin 49.3% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKenzie 59.2%
Defensive zone
MacKenzie 87.0%
Neutral zone
MacKenzie 73.7%
Result
Derek MacKenzie favored at 75.4%
75.4%
24.6%
MacKenzie
Begin
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
MacKenzie
Begin
Last 7: MacKenzie 5-2 Begin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Begin
0
1
MacKenzie
Begin
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
2
0
MacKenzie
Begin
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
3
1
MacKenzie
Begin
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKenzie
Begin
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (3,660)
52.6% (95)
+2.3%
Power Play
55.9% (102)
100.0% (1)
-44.1%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (1,158)
28.6% (21)
+18.1%
On power play, Begin has a +44.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Begin shoots left. MacKenzie is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (3,097).
MacKenzie shoots left. Begin is 44.8% vs left-shot opponents (87).
Home / Away
MacKenzie
Begin
Home
54.0% (2,527)
52.1% (48)
Away
52.1% (2,398)
46.4% (69)
By Period
MacKenzie
Begin
P1
51.9%
52.9%
P2
53.0%
40.0%
P3
54.0%
55.3%
Final 5 min
52.9%
35.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
53.1%
Begin
56.0%▲
48.7%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2013 | 2 | 09:34 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Mar 29, 2013 | 1 | 13:46 | Neutral | Steve Begin |
| Mar 22, 2013 | 3 | 15:30 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Mar 22, 2013 | 3 | 15:25 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Mar 22, 2013 | 2 | 14:31 | Offensive | Steve Begin |
| Mar 22, 2013 | 2 | 14:20 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Mar 22, 2013 | 2 | 12:15 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |