Scouting Report
Derek MacKenzie holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Zajac on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). MacKenzie wins 53.1% vs right-shot opponents — Zajac shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKenzie 54.3% vs Zajac 51.4% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zajac 64.5%
Defensive zone
Zajac 67.1%
Neutral zone
Zajac 65.0%
Result
Travis Zajac favored at 64.8%
35.2%
64.8%
MacKenzie
Zajac
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
MacKenzie
Zajac
Last 5: MacKenzie 0-5 Zajac
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zajac
0
2
MacKenzie
Zajac
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zajac
0
3
MacKenzie
Zajac
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKenzie
Zajac
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (523)
51.8% (986)
+4.0%
Power Play
52.4% (21)
61.1% (185)
-8.7%
Penalty Kill
52.9% (257)
42.1% (216)
+10.8%
On penalty kill, MacKenzie has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zajac shoots right. MacKenzie is 53.1% vs right-shot opponents (307).
MacKenzie shoots left. Zajac is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (934).
Home / Away
MacKenzie
Zajac
Home
54.4% (463)
54.0% (672)
Away
55.3% (338)
49.2% (715)
By Period
MacKenzie
Zajac
P1
54.2%
53.1%
P2
54.0%
52.2%
P3
56.7%
50.1%
OT
33.3%
38.5%
Final 5 min
52.6%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
54.8%
Zajac
62.0%▲
52.5%
51.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2016 | 3 | 17:52 | Neutral | Travis Zajac |
| Mar 31, 2016 | 3 | 16:06 | Offensive | Travis Zajac |
| Mar 31, 2016 | 3 | 03:30 | Neutral | Travis Zajac |
| Mar 31, 2016 | 3 | 03:13 | Neutral | Travis Zajac |
| Mar 31, 2016 | 1 | 00:42 | Offensive | Travis Zajac |