Scouting Report
Derek MacKenzie holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Graovac on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). MacKenzie wins 53.5% vs left-shot opponents — Graovac shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKenzie 50.0% vs Graovac 48.1% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Graovac 77.9%
Defensive zone
MacKenzie 81.5%
Neutral zone
MacKenzie 50.6%
Result
Derek MacKenzie favored at 58.6%
58.6%
41.4%
MacKenzie
Graovac
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
MacKenzie
Graovac
Last 8: MacKenzie 4-4 Graovac
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
1
0
MacKenzie
Graovac
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
2
1
MacKenzie
Graovac
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Graovac
1
3
MacKenzie
Graovac
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKenzie
Graovac
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (564)
47.5% (341)
+5.0%
Power Play
77.8% (9)
50.0% (2)
+27.8%
On power play, MacKenzie has a +27.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Graovac shoots left. MacKenzie is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (467).
MacKenzie shoots left. Graovac is 47.3% vs left-shot opponents (222).
Home / Away
MacKenzie
Graovac
Home
52.7% (404)
48.6% (181)
Away
47.0% (368)
46.3% (162)
By Period
MacKenzie
Graovac
P1
50.0%
42.4%
P2
50.0%
46.8%
P3
49.4%
54.5%
Final 5 min
55.0%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
50.0%
Graovac
48.0%▲
43.5%
47.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2016 | 3 | 08:32 | Defensive | Tyler Graovac |
| Dec 13, 2016 | 3 | 08:26 | Neutral | Tyler Graovac |
| Dec 13, 2016 | 3 | 02:12 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Dec 13, 2016 | 2 | 13:30 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Dec 13, 2016 | 2 | 13:15 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Dec 13, 2016 | 2 | 09:46 | Neutral | Tyler Graovac |
| Dec 13, 2016 | 2 | 04:11 | Neutral | Tyler Graovac |
| Dec 13, 2016 | 1 | 16:20 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |