Scouting Report
Derek MacKenzie holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKenzie on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). MacKenzie wins 53.1% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKenzie 54.3% vs Johnson 48.7% (+6.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKenzie 67.5%
Defensive zone
MacKenzie 95.0%
Neutral zone
MacKenzie 84.1%
Result
Derek MacKenzie favored at 86.1%
86.1%
13.9%
MacKenzie
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
MacKenzie
Johnson
Last 8: MacKenzie 7-1 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
1
0
MacKenzie
Johnson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
3
0
MacKenzie
Johnson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
3
1
MacKenzie
Johnson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKenzie
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (523)
48.5% (776)
+7.3%
Power Play
52.4% (21)
56.7% (157)
-4.3%
Penalty Kill
52.9% (257)
26.4% (53)
+26.5%
On penalty kill, MacKenzie has a +26.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. MacKenzie is 53.1% vs right-shot opponents (307).
MacKenzie shoots left. Johnson is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (648).
Home / Away
MacKenzie
Johnson
Home
54.4% (463)
48.8% (482)
Away
55.3% (338)
48.4% (504)
By Period
MacKenzie
Johnson
P1
54.2%
50.3%
P2
54.0%
48.5%
P3
56.7%
47.0%
OT
33.3%
44.4%
Final 5 min
52.6%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
54.8%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2016 | 3 | 13:19 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Jan 23, 2016 | 1 | 01:53 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Jan 17, 2016 | 2 | 13:36 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Nov 14, 2015 | 3 | 19:22 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Nov 14, 2015 | 3 | 15:17 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Nov 14, 2015 | 2 | 11:44 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Nov 14, 2015 | 2 | 11:25 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Nov 14, 2015 | 1 | 10:58 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |