Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.4% vs 46.5%). Look for Roy on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 47.4% vs Stepan 46.6% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Roy leads 12-10 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Roy 55.1%
Defensive zone
Stepan 51.0%
Neutral zone
Roy 51.7%
Result
Derek Roy favored at 51.5%
51.5%
48.5%
Roy
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
10
(22 meetings)
12
10
Roy
Stepan
Last 10: Roy 5-5 Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Roy
Stepan
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
5
2
Roy
Stepan
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
5
6
Roy
Stepan
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (3,031)
46.5% (10,204)
-0.1%
Power Play
53.6% (560)
48.8% (1,593)
+4.8%
Penalty Kill
46.8% (267)
44.2% (1,368)
+2.6%
On power play, Roy has a +4.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. Roy is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (1,417).
Roy shoots left. Stepan is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,190).
Home / Away
Roy
Stepan
Home
49.5% (1,982)
47.6% (6,608)
Away
45.1% (1,897)
45.5% (6,573)
By Period
Roy
Stepan
P1
47.6%
47.5%
P2
46.2%
45.6%
P3
48.5%
46.8%
OT
43.1%
40.7%
Final 5 min
47.0%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
47.4%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2013 | 3 | 03:56 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Oct 12, 2013 | 1 | 01:04 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Oct 12, 2013 | 1 | 00:58 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 23, 2012 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Mar 23, 2012 | 2 | 14:25 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Mar 23, 2012 | 2 | 08:33 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 23, 2012 | 2 | 03:14 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 23, 2012 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 25, 2012 | 3 | 01:55 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Feb 25, 2012 | 1 | 18:51 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 25, 2012 | 1 | 17:13 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Feb 1, 2012 | 3 | 12:40 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 1, 2012 | 3 | 07:47 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Feb 1, 2012 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Feb 1, 2012 | 2 | 00:13 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Feb 1, 2012 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Feb 1, 2012 | 1 | 06:03 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Oct 9, 2010 | 3 | 03:54 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Oct 9, 2010 | 3 | 01:08 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 9, 2010 | 2 | 14:47 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |