Scouting Report
Derek Roy holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 47.0% vs Stepan 39.9% (+7.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 72.8%
Defensive zone
Stepan 79.4%
Neutral zone
Stepan 72.3%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 73.8%
26.2%
73.8%
Roy
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Roy
Stepan
Last 5: Roy 1-4 Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
0
1
Roy
Stepan
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
0
1
Roy
Stepan
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
2
Roy
Stepan
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
43.9% (380)
38.6% (630)
+5.3%
Power Play
52.8% (106)
45.3% (64)
+7.5%
Penalty Kill
55.3% (38)
22.7% (22)
+32.6%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +32.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. Roy is 48.7% vs right-shot opponents (228).
Roy shoots left. Stepan is 38.4% vs left-shot opponents (492).
Home / Away
Roy
Stepan
Home
51.6% (283)
39.0% (364)
Away
40.4% (245)
38.0% (355)
By Period
Roy
Stepan
P1
47.8%
39.4%
P2
41.1%
40.6%
P3
49.7%
36.4%
OT
41.7%
12.5%
Final 5 min
42.4%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
46.4%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
38.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2010 | 3 | 03:54 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Oct 9, 2010 | 3 | 01:08 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 9, 2010 | 2 | 14:47 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 9, 2010 | 1 | 19:14 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 9, 2010 | 1 | 16:12 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |