Scouting Report
Jerred Smithson holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Smithson on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 47.4% vs Smithson 56.5% (-9.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 84.5%
Defensive zone
Smithson 57.8%
Neutral zone
Roy 64.2%
Result
Derek Roy favored at 61.4%
61.4%
38.6%
Roy
Smithson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Roy
Smithson
Last 9: Roy 3-6 Smithson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Roy
Smithson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smithson
1
2
Roy
Smithson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Smithson
1
3
Roy
Smithson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Smithson
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (3,031)
58.4% (1,842)
-12.0%
Power Play
53.6% (560)
55.6% (45)
-2.0%
Penalty Kill
46.8% (267)
50.6% (443)
-3.8%
On even strength, Smithson has a +12.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smithson shoots right. Roy is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (1,417).
Roy shoots left. Smithson is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,681).
Home / Away
Roy
Smithson
Home
49.5% (1,982)
58.4% (1,195)
Away
45.1% (1,897)
55.0% (1,150)
By Period
Roy
Smithson
P1
47.6%
55.9%
P2
46.2%
55.3%
P3
48.5%
59.0%
OT
43.1%
54.2%
Final 5 min
47.0%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
47.4%
Smithson
52.0%▼
58.0%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2013 | 3 | 17:48 | Neutral | Jerred Smithson |
| Apr 27, 2013 | 3 | 13:18 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Apr 27, 2013 | 3 | 03:41 | Neutral | Jerred Smithson |
| Apr 27, 2013 | 2 | 11:20 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Apr 27, 2013 | 1 | 18:58 | Neutral | Jerred Smithson |
| Apr 27, 2013 | 1 | 07:05 | Offensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Apr 27, 2013 | 1 | 06:57 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Mar 17, 2012 | 3 | 19:42 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Mar 17, 2012 | 2 | 09:36 | Offensive | Derek Roy |