Scouting Report
Jerred Smithson holds a +9.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Smithson on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 46.2% vs Smithson 54.5% (-9.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 69.1%
Defensive zone
Roy 68.5%
Neutral zone
Roy 71.7%
Result
Derek Roy favored at 70.4%
70.4%
29.6%
Roy
Smithson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Roy
Smithson
Last 7: Roy 2-5 Smithson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Smithson
0
1
Roy
Smithson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Roy
Smithson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Smithson
1
3
Roy
Smithson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Smithson
Edge
Even Strength
45.3% (506)
55.5% (371)
-10.2%
Power Play
57.4% (68)
75.0% (8)
-17.6%
Penalty Kill
37.0% (73)
53.5% (99)
-16.5%
On power play, Smithson has a +17.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smithson shoots right. Roy is 47.1% vs right-shot opponents (208).
Roy shoots left. Smithson is 56.4% vs left-shot opponents (298).
Home / Away
Roy
Smithson
Home
44.9% (354)
55.4% (249)
Away
46.4% (293)
55.5% (229)
By Period
Roy
Smithson
P1
47.0%
55.8%
P2
47.2%
52.6%
P3
42.5%
56.6%
OT
50.0%
83.3%
Final 5 min
41.4%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
45.6%
Smithson
52.0%▼
58.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2013 | 3 | 17:48 | Neutral | Jerred Smithson |
| Apr 27, 2013 | 3 | 13:18 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Apr 27, 2013 | 3 | 03:41 | Neutral | Jerred Smithson |
| Apr 27, 2013 | 2 | 11:20 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Apr 27, 2013 | 1 | 18:58 | Neutral | Jerred Smithson |
| Apr 27, 2013 | 1 | 07:05 | Offensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Apr 27, 2013 | 1 | 06:57 | Defensive | Derek Roy |