Scouting Report
Jesse Winchester holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 47.4% vs Winchester 53.7% (-6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 63.1%
Defensive zone
Winchester 78.0%
Neutral zone
Winchester 61.0%
Result
Jesse Winchester favored at 53.1%
46.9%
53.1%
Roy
Winchester
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Roy
Winchester
Last 7: Roy 4-3 Winchester
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
3
0
Roy
Winchester
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Winchester
0
1
Roy
Winchester
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Winchester
1
2
Roy
Winchester
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Winchester
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (3,031)
55.2% (716)
-8.8%
Power Play
53.6% (560)
46.7% (15)
+6.9%
Penalty Kill
46.8% (267)
51.4% (175)
-4.6%
On even strength, Winchester has a +8.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Winchester shoots right. Roy is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (1,417).
Roy shoots left. Winchester is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
Roy
Winchester
Home
49.5% (1,982)
54.7% (459)
Away
45.1% (1,897)
53.4% (451)
By Period
Roy
Winchester
P1
47.6%
47.8%
P2
46.2%
57.8%
P3
48.5%
56.2%
OT
43.1%
57.1%
Final 5 min
47.0%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
47.4%
Winchester
44.0%▼
50.5%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2011 | 2 | 08:06 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Nov 11, 2011 | 3 | 19:58 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Nov 11, 2011 | 3 | 05:39 | Defensive | Jesse Winchester |
| Nov 11, 2011 | 2 | 14:25 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Nov 5, 2011 | 2 | 06:14 | Neutral | Jesse Winchester |
| Oct 22, 2010 | 3 | 10:49 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Oct 8, 2010 | 3 | 16:28 | Neutral | Jesse Winchester |