Scouting Report
Jesse Winchester holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 50.5% vs Winchester 52.5% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 62.1%
Defensive zone
Roy 50.4%
Neutral zone
Winchester 54.3%
Result
Derek Roy favored at 53.2%
53.2%
46.8%
Roy
Winchester
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Roy
Winchester
Last 5: Roy 3-2 Winchester
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
2
0
Roy
Winchester
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Winchester
0
1
Roy
Winchester
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Roy
Winchester
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Winchester
Edge
Even Strength
50.3% (1,010)
55.9% (177)
-5.6%
Power Play
53.3% (169)
66.7% (3)
-13.4%
Penalty Kill
51.1% (133)
46.3% (54)
+4.8%
On power play, Winchester has a +13.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Winchester shoots right. Roy is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (457).
Roy shoots left. Winchester is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (168).
Home / Away
Roy
Winchester
Home
52.4% (683)
57.1% (98)
Away
48.6% (646)
51.1% (137)
By Period
Roy
Winchester
P1
48.3%
44.6%
P2
49.5%
59.3%
P3
53.9%
55.9%
OT
48.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.0%
51.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
50.6%
Winchester
44.0%▼
50.5%
53.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2011 | 2 | 08:06 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Nov 11, 2011 | 3 | 19:58 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Nov 11, 2011 | 3 | 05:39 | Defensive | Jesse Winchester |
| Nov 11, 2011 | 2 | 14:25 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Nov 5, 2011 | 2 | 06:14 | Neutral | Jesse Winchester |