Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on offensive-zone draws (56% H2H, 9 meetings). Roy wins 46.8% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 47.4% vs Duchene 54.1% (-6.8%)
H2H factor
Roy leads 25-24 in 49 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 58.8%
Defensive zone
Duchene 59.0%
Neutral zone
Duchene 61.1%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 59.7%
40.3%
59.7%
Roy
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
25
-
24
(49 meetings)
25
24
Roy
Duchene
Last 10: Roy 5-5 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
5
4
Roy
Duchene
9 total
Defensive Zone
Even
11
11
Roy
Duchene
22 total
Neutral Zone
Even
9
9
Roy
Duchene
18 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (3,031)
53.9% (10,396)
-7.5%
Power Play
53.6% (560)
56.9% (1,665)
-3.3%
Penalty Kill
46.8% (267)
49.1% (468)
-2.3%
On even strength, Duchene has a +7.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Roy is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (2,462).
Roy shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,059).
Home / Away
Roy
Duchene
Home
49.5% (1,982)
55.6% (6,411)
Away
45.1% (1,897)
52.7% (6,142)
By Period
Roy
Duchene
P1
47.6%
54.5%
P2
46.2%
54.5%
P3
48.5%
53.4%
OT
43.1%
56.3%
Final 5 min
47.0%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
47.4%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2015 | 3 | 01:10 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 30, 2015 | 3 | 01:03 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 30, 2015 | 1 | 10:26 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 25, 2015 | 3 | 10:42 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Mar 25, 2015 | 3 | 02:40 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Mar 25, 2015 | 3 | 00:09 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Mar 25, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 25, 2015 | 2 | 13:51 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Mar 25, 2015 | 2 | 05:22 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Mar 25, 2015 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 25, 2015 | 1 | 05:17 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Mar 25, 2015 | 1 | 00:07 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 25, 2015 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 2, 2015 | 3 | 12:17 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 2, 2015 | 3 | 07:46 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Jan 2, 2015 | 2 | 02:53 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Jan 2, 2015 | 1 | 04:08 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Jan 2, 2015 | 1 | 04:00 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 2, 2015 | 1 | 03:50 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 2, 2015 | 1 | 01:07 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |