Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +9.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on defensive-zone draws (64% H2H, 11 meetings). Roy wins 44.9% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 46.2% vs Duchene 54.2% (-9.0%)
H2H factor
Roy leads 15-11 in 26 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 77.7%
Defensive zone
Duchene 64.9%
Neutral zone
Duchene 79.5%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 72.9%
27.1%
72.9%
Roy
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
11
(26 meetings)
15
11
Roy
Duchene
Last 10: Roy 6-4 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Roy
Duchene
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
7
4
Roy
Duchene
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
5
4
Roy
Duchene
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
45.3% (506)
56.8% (706)
-11.5%
Power Play
57.4% (68)
56.1% (57)
+1.3%
Penalty Kill
37.0% (73)
42.3% (130)
-5.3%
On even strength, Duchene has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Roy is 44.9% vs left-shot opponents (439).
Roy shoots left. Duchene is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (635).
Home / Away
Roy
Duchene
Home
44.9% (354)
56.6% (488)
Away
46.4% (293)
52.3% (405)
By Period
Roy
Duchene
P1
47.0%
52.0%
P2
47.2%
53.7%
P3
42.5%
58.5%
OT
50.0%
46.7%
Final 5 min
41.4%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
45.6%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2013 | 3 | 12:32 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 13, 2013 | 3 | 04:24 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Apr 13, 2013 | 1 | 12:21 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Mar 23, 2013 | 3 | 06:44 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Mar 23, 2013 | 3 | 02:33 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 23, 2013 | 3 | 02:18 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 23, 2013 | 3 | 00:21 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Mar 23, 2013 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 23, 2013 | 2 | 16:41 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Mar 23, 2013 | 2 | 14:02 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Mar 23, 2013 | 2 | 09:40 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 23, 2013 | 2 | 06:12 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Mar 23, 2013 | 2 | 05:54 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Mar 23, 2013 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 23, 2013 | 1 | 17:00 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Mar 23, 2013 | 1 | 16:52 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 23, 2013 | 1 | 11:10 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Mar 23, 2013 | 1 | 06:55 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Mar 23, 2013 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Mar 20, 2013 | 1 | 18:30 | Defensive | Derek Roy |