Scouting Report
Matt Stajan holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Stajan on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Roy wins 46.7% vs left-shot opponents — Stajan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 47.5% vs Stajan 48.2% (-1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 80.6%
Defensive zone
Stajan 84.0%
Neutral zone
Stajan 53.9%
Result
Derek Roy favored at 53.3%
53.3%
46.7%
Roy
Stajan
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Roy
Stajan
Last 6: Roy 1-5 Stajan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stajan
1
2
Roy
Stajan
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stajan
0
2
Roy
Stajan
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stajan
0
1
Roy
Stajan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Stajan
Edge
Even Strength
43.0% (351)
49.2% (886)
-6.2%
Power Play
61.3% (106)
37.1% (35)
+24.2%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (9)
44.6% (175)
-11.3%
On power play, Roy has a +24.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stajan shoots left. Roy is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (306).
Roy shoots left. Stajan is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (708).
Home / Away
Roy
Stajan
Home
52.3% (241)
51.2% (572)
Away
41.3% (225)
44.7% (524)
By Period
Roy
Stajan
P1
51.6%
48.4%
P2
46.4%
45.2%
P3
43.1%
50.8%
OT
33.3%
40.0%
Final 5 min
47.9%
49.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
47.0%
Stajan
50.0%▬
49.5%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2014 | 3 | 02:17 | Offensive | Matt Stajan |
| Jan 9, 2014 | 2 | 19:10 | Defensive | Matt Stajan |
| Dec 23, 2013 | 3 | 19:55 | Neutral | Matt Stajan |
| Dec 23, 2013 | 2 | 08:01 | Offensive | Matt Stajan |
| Dec 23, 2013 | 1 | 07:15 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Dec 23, 2013 | 1 | 03:59 | Defensive | Matt Stajan |