Scouting Report
Matt Stajan holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Roy wins 43.7% vs left-shot opponents — Stajan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 45.3% vs Stajan 50.3% (-5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 83.4%
Defensive zone
Stajan 71.3%
Neutral zone
Roy 56.5%
Result
Matt Stajan favored at 52.8%
47.2%
52.8%
Roy
Stajan
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Roy
Stajan
Last 6: Roy 2-4 Stajan
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stajan
0
2
Roy
Stajan
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Roy
Stajan
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Stajan
Edge
Even Strength
44.8% (784)
51.1% (503)
-6.3%
Power Play
45.0% (111)
42.9% (7)
+2.1%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (14)
46.7% (92)
-3.8%
On even strength, Stajan has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stajan shoots left. Roy is 43.7% vs left-shot opponents (545).
Roy shoots left. Stajan is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (375).
Home / Away
Roy
Stajan
Home
45.8% (421)
55.1% (336)
Away
43.9% (488)
44.4% (266)
By Period
Roy
Stajan
P1
44.9%
51.3%
P2
43.6%
47.7%
P3
46.4%
52.4%
Final 5 min
49.1%
49.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
44.8%
Stajan
50.0%▬
49.5%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2015 | 3 | 18:52 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Jan 31, 2015 | 2 | 07:54 | Neutral | Matt Stajan |
| Jan 31, 2015 | 2 | 02:02 | Defensive | Matt Stajan |
| Dec 31, 2014 | 2 | 04:20 | Defensive | Matt Stajan |
| Oct 14, 2014 | 2 | 15:10 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Oct 14, 2014 | 1 | 16:29 | Neutral | Matt Stajan |