Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on neutral-zone draws (64% H2H, 14 meetings). Roy wins 46.8% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 47.4% vs Backlund 49.0% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Backlund leads 18-12 in 30 meetings
Offensive zone
Roy 77.9%
Defensive zone
Backlund 58.8%
Neutral zone
Roy 55.0%
Result
Derek Roy favored at 58.7%
58.7%
41.3%
Roy
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
18
(30 meetings)
12
18
Roy
Backlund
Last 10: Roy 2-8 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
5
4
Roy
Backlund
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
2
5
Roy
Backlund
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
5
9
Roy
Backlund
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (3,031)
49.7% (13,410)
-3.3%
Power Play
53.6% (560)
51.6% (1,336)
+2.0%
Penalty Kill
46.8% (267)
44.0% (2,446)
+2.8%
On even strength, Backlund has a +3.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Roy is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (2,462).
Roy shoots left. Backlund is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (10,953).
Home / Away
Roy
Backlund
Home
49.5% (1,982)
49.7% (8,565)
Away
45.1% (1,897)
48.3% (8,632)
By Period
Roy
Backlund
P1
47.6%
48.5%
P2
46.2%
50.3%
P3
48.5%
48.4%
OT
43.1%
44.1%
Final 5 min
47.0%
48.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
47.4%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2015 | 3 | 15:42 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Jan 31, 2015 | 3 | 05:48 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 31, 2015 | 3 | 02:56 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 31, 2015 | 2 | 19:19 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 31, 2015 | 2 | 11:54 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 31, 2015 | 1 | 15:30 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 14, 2014 | 3 | 09:54 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 14, 2014 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 14, 2014 | 2 | 13:21 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Oct 14, 2014 | 2 | 13:13 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 14, 2014 | 2 | 03:18 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Oct 14, 2014 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 14, 2014 | 1 | 17:48 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 14, 2014 | 1 | 04:45 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 14, 2014 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 9, 2014 | 3 | 11:08 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Jan 9, 2014 | 2 | 11:34 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Jan 9, 2014 | 1 | 17:53 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Jan 9, 2014 | 1 | 09:02 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 9, 2014 | 1 | 04:57 | Neutral | Derek Roy |