Scouting Report
Nick Foligno holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Foligno on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Roy wins 43.7% vs left-shot opponents — Foligno shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 45.3% vs Foligno 48.2% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Foligno leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Roy 64.9%
Defensive zone
Roy 55.6%
Neutral zone
Roy 58.0%
Result
Derek Roy favored at 58.2%
58.2%
41.8%
Roy
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Roy
Foligno
Last 10: Roy 3-7 Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
2
0
Roy
Foligno
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
5
Roy
Foligno
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Foligno
1
2
Roy
Foligno
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
44.8% (784)
47.1% (227)
-2.3%
Power Play
45.0% (111)
46.7% (15)
-1.7%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (14)
52.4% (21)
-9.5%
On penalty kill, Foligno has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Roy is 43.7% vs left-shot opponents (545).
Roy shoots left. Foligno is 49.7% vs left-shot opponents (169).
Home / Away
Roy
Foligno
Home
45.8% (421)
45.7% (116)
Away
43.9% (488)
49.0% (147)
By Period
Roy
Foligno
P1
44.9%
53.8%
P2
43.6%
50.0%
P3
46.4%
40.4%
OT
35.3%
40.0%
Final 5 min
49.1%
49.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
44.8%
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
47.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2015 | OT | 04:21 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Mar 18, 2015 | 3 | 11:48 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 18, 2015 | 3 | 09:05 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Mar 18, 2015 | 3 | 03:39 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 18, 2015 | 2 | 17:33 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 18, 2015 | 2 | 04:39 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 18, 2015 | 1 | 01:15 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Mar 18, 2015 | 1 | 01:02 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 13, 2015 | 3 | 08:02 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 13, 2015 | 3 | 03:26 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |