Scouting Report
Derek Roy holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Roy wins 46.7% vs left-shot opponents — Jokinen shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 47.5% vs Jokinen 46.3% (+1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 84.4%
Defensive zone
Jokinen 58.8%
Neutral zone
Roy 60.1%
Result
Derek Roy favored at 50.6%
50.6%
49.4%
Roy
Jokinen
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Roy
Jokinen
Last 6: Roy 4-2 Jokinen
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
2
1
Roy
Jokinen
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
2
1
Roy
Jokinen
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Jokinen
Edge
Even Strength
43.0% (351)
45.3% (1,142)
-2.3%
Power Play
61.3% (106)
53.4% (131)
+7.9%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (9)
43.9% (57)
-10.6%
On penalty kill, Jokinen has a +10.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jokinen shoots left. Roy is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (306).
Roy shoots left. Jokinen is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (900).
Home / Away
Roy
Jokinen
Home
52.3% (241)
48.8% (692)
Away
41.3% (225)
42.9% (638)
By Period
Roy
Jokinen
P1
51.6%
44.9%
P2
46.4%
45.7%
P3
43.1%
46.9%
OT
33.3%
60.0%
Final 5 min
47.9%
44.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
47.0%
Jokinen
38.0%▼
42.5%
46.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2014 | 3 | 04:23 | Defensive | Olli Jokinen |
| Feb 8, 2014 | 1 | 17:20 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Oct 18, 2013 | 3 | 01:30 | Neutral | Olli Jokinen |
| Oct 18, 2013 | 3 | 01:23 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Oct 18, 2013 | 1 | 18:14 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Oct 18, 2013 | 1 | 01:39 | Defensive | Derek Roy |