Scouting Report
Patrick Marleau holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Marleau on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Roy wins 46.8% vs left-shot opponents — Marleau shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 47.4% vs Marleau 50.9% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 62.6%
Defensive zone
Roy 55.4%
Neutral zone
Roy 59.6%
Result
Derek Roy favored at 60.7%
60.7%
39.3%
Roy
Marleau
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Roy
Marleau
Last 7: Roy 2-5 Marleau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Marleau
1
3
Roy
Marleau
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
1
0
Roy
Marleau
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Marleau
0
2
Roy
Marleau
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Marleau
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (3,031)
50.3% (2,656)
-3.9%
Power Play
53.6% (560)
55.7% (332)
-2.1%
Penalty Kill
46.8% (267)
50.7% (452)
-3.9%
On penalty kill, Marleau has a +3.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Marleau shoots left. Roy is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (2,462).
Roy shoots left. Marleau is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (2,061).
Home / Away
Roy
Marleau
Home
49.5% (1,982)
53.3% (1,735)
Away
45.1% (1,897)
48.5% (1,715)
By Period
Roy
Marleau
P1
47.6%
52.2%
P2
46.2%
49.5%
P3
48.5%
50.7%
OT
43.1%
55.1%
Final 5 min
47.0%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
47.4%
Marleau
50.0%▲
47.0%
50.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2012 | 3 | 14:22 | Offensive | Patrick Marleau |
| Mar 1, 2012 | 2 | 14:01 | Offensive | Patrick Marleau |
| Mar 1, 2012 | 1 | 11:26 | Neutral | Patrick Marleau |
| Mar 1, 2012 | 1 | 09:46 | Offensive | Patrick Marleau |
| Mar 1, 2012 | 1 | 04:57 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Mar 1, 2012 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Patrick Marleau |
| Dec 9, 2010 | 2 | 03:41 | Offensive | Derek Roy |