Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +11.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 46.2% vs Kesler 55.6% (-11.8%)
H2H factor
Kesler leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Roy 54.1%
Defensive zone
Roy 55.8%
Neutral zone
Roy 55.4%
Result
Derek Roy favored at 55.0%
55.0%
45.0%
Roy
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
7
(12 meetings)
5
7
Roy
Kesler
Last 10: Roy 4-6 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
3
2
Roy
Kesler
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
2
3
Roy
Kesler
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kesler
0
2
Roy
Kesler
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
45.3% (506)
57.6% (231)
-12.3%
Power Play
57.4% (68)
65.5% (29)
-8.1%
Penalty Kill
37.0% (73)
51.2% (43)
-14.2%
On penalty kill, Kesler has a +14.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Roy is 47.1% vs right-shot opponents (208).
Roy shoots left. Kesler is 58.9% vs left-shot opponents (246).
Home / Away
Roy
Kesler
Home
44.9% (354)
58.8% (114)
Away
46.4% (293)
56.6% (189)
By Period
Roy
Kesler
P1
47.0%
60.8%
P2
47.2%
60.0%
P3
42.5%
52.5%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
41.4%
58.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
45.6%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
57.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2013 | 3 | 14:51 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Feb 21, 2013 | 3 | 04:18 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 21, 2013 | 3 | 01:24 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 21, 2013 | 3 | 01:10 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Feb 21, 2013 | 2 | 11:40 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Feb 15, 2013 | 3 | 02:42 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 15, 2013 | 3 | 00:33 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 15, 2013 | 3 | 00:32 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Feb 15, 2013 | 2 | 19:26 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 15, 2013 | 2 | 09:13 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 15, 2013 | 2 | 07:15 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 15, 2013 | 1 | 00:44 | Defensive | Derek Roy |