Scouting Report
Derek Roy holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Roy wins 46.7% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 47.5% vs Monahan 46.3% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 58.5%
Defensive zone
Monahan 74.5%
Neutral zone
Monahan 59.2%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 64.3%
35.7%
64.3%
Roy
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Roy
Monahan
Last 6: Roy 2-4 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Roy
Monahan
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
3
Roy
Monahan
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
43.0% (351)
45.9% (908)
-2.9%
Power Play
61.3% (106)
49.1% (108)
+12.2%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (9)
30.0% (20)
+3.3%
On power play, Roy has a +12.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Roy is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (306).
Roy shoots left. Monahan is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (638).
Home / Away
Roy
Monahan
Home
52.3% (241)
48.7% (528)
Away
41.3% (225)
43.1% (508)
By Period
Roy
Monahan
P1
51.6%
50.1%
P2
46.4%
44.7%
P3
43.1%
42.7%
OT
33.3%
55.6%
Final 5 min
47.9%
45.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
47.0%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
45.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2014 | 2 | 03:52 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 9, 2014 | 1 | 11:46 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 9, 2014 | 1 | 11:37 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 9, 2014 | 1 | 02:35 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Dec 23, 2013 | 3 | 11:09 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 23, 2013 | 2 | 09:05 | Defensive | Derek Roy |