Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +9.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Seguin on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Roy wins 46.4% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 45.3% vs Seguin 53.2% (-9.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 60.9%
Defensive zone
Roy 67.7%
Neutral zone
Roy 62.1%
Result
Derek Roy favored at 64.3%
64.3%
35.7%
Roy
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Roy
Seguin
Last 6: Roy 1-5 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
1
2
Roy
Seguin
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
0
3
Roy
Seguin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
44.8% (784)
53.9% (482)
-9.1%
Power Play
45.0% (111)
35.3% (17)
+9.7%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (14)
75.0% (12)
-32.1%
On penalty kill, Seguin has a +32.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Roy is 46.4% vs right-shot opponents (364).
Roy shoots left. Seguin is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (325).
Home / Away
Roy
Seguin
Home
45.8% (421)
58.9% (231)
Away
43.9% (488)
49.6% (280)
By Period
Roy
Seguin
P1
44.9%
51.5%
P2
43.6%
48.5%
P3
46.4%
61.7%
OT
35.3%
57.1%
Final 5 min
49.1%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
44.8%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
53.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2014 | 3 | 07:18 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 6, 2014 | 2 | 08:53 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 6, 2014 | 2 | 00:26 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 11, 2014 | 2 | 19:18 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Oct 11, 2014 | 2 | 01:08 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 11, 2014 | 1 | 10:31 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |