Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.3% vs 55.1%). Look for Stastny on offensive-zone draws (69% H2H, 16 meetings). Ryan wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 55.2% vs Stastny 55.1% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Stastny leads 23-17 in 40 meetings
Offensive zone
Stastny 61.4%
Defensive zone
Ryan 65.3%
Neutral zone
Ryan 57.9%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 53.3%
53.3%
46.7%
Ryan
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
23
(40 meetings)
17
23
Ryan
Stastny
Last 10: Ryan 5-5 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
5
11
Ryan
Stastny
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
9
8
Ryan
Stastny
17 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
3
4
Ryan
Stastny
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (4,102)
54.6% (10,616)
+2.0%
Power Play
53.2% (342)
59.1% (1,994)
-5.9%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (649)
52.9% (1,119)
-5.1%
On power play, Stastny has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Ryan is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (3,676).
Ryan shoots right. Stastny is 58.4% vs right-shot opponents (4,907).
Home / Away
Ryan
Stastny
Home
56.2% (2,559)
55.9% (7,073)
Away
54.4% (2,534)
54.3% (6,705)
By Period
Ryan
Stastny
P1
55.1%
56.3%
P2
54.7%
55.4%
P3
56.0%
53.5%
OT
58.3%
62.9%
Final 5 min
52.5%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
55.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 5, 2021 | 3 | 01:16 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 29, 2021 | 1 | 03:11 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 26, 2021 | 3 | 10:16 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 26, 2021 | 3 | 06:52 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 2, 2021 | 2 | 17:23 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 2, 2021 | 1 | 18:34 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 1, 2021 | 3 | 04:24 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 1, 2021 | 2 | 17:14 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 14, 2021 | 2 | 15:04 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 17, 2019 | 3 | 14:37 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 17, 2019 | 3 | 14:25 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 17, 2019 | 2 | 02:17 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 17, 2019 | 1 | 06:10 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 12, 2019 | 2 | 07:35 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 12, 2019 | 2 | 03:04 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 10, 2019 | 3 | 16:47 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 10, 2019 | 2 | 02:58 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 6, 2019 | 3 | 07:22 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 6, 2019 | 3 | 02:21 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 6, 2019 | 2 | 05:37 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |