Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Ryan wins 55.9% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 55.9% vs Stastny 54.6% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ryan 54.6%
Defensive zone
Stastny 58.0%
Neutral zone
Stastny 53.6%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 51.9%
48.1%
51.9%
Ryan
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Ryan
Stastny
Last 9: Ryan 3-6 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Ryan
Stastny
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
1
3
Ryan
Stastny
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
0
1
Ryan
Stastny
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (816)
54.8% (1,130)
+1.7%
Power Play
55.2% (105)
59.1% (235)
-3.9%
Penalty Kill
63.2% (19)
49.3% (150)
+13.9%
On penalty kill, Ryan has a +13.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Ryan is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (642).
Ryan shoots right. Stastny is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (568).
Home / Away
Ryan
Stastny
Home
56.7% (466)
55.5% (803)
Away
56.3% (474)
54.2% (712)
By Period
Ryan
Stastny
P1
55.4%
57.4%
P2
58.1%
52.5%
P3
55.8%
54.3%
OT
66.7%
69.6%
Final 5 min
55.6%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
56.5%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2018 | 3 | 06:34 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 4, 2018 | 1 | 01:30 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 30, 2017 | 3 | 19:51 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 30, 2017 | 2 | 01:13 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 27, 2017 | 3 | 08:00 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 27, 2017 | 2 | 17:41 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 27, 2017 | 2 | 05:36 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 27, 2017 | 1 | 15:12 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 27, 2017 | 1 | 09:12 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |