Scouting Report
Chris Kelly holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 51.6% vs Stepan 45.1% (+7.3%)
H2H factor
Kelly leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Kelly 55.9%
Defensive zone
Kelly 88.6%
Neutral zone
Kelly 78.4%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 71.0%
71.0%
29.0%
Kelly
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
3
(11 meetings)
8
3
Kelly
Stepan
Last 10: Kelly 7-3 Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
3
Kelly
Stepan
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
3
0
Kelly
Stepan
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
3
0
Kelly
Stepan
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (686)
44.9% (680)
+6.4%
Power Play
69.2% (26)
50.8% (118)
+18.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (92)
29.8% (57)
+20.2%
On penalty kill, Kelly has a +20.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. Kelly is 50.8% vs right-shot opponents (248).
Kelly shoots left. Stepan is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (620).
Home / Away
Kelly
Stepan
Home
52.3% (388)
45.6% (463)
Away
51.3% (421)
43.3% (404)
By Period
Kelly
Stepan
P1
50.0%
50.2%
P2
51.7%
39.4%
P3
53.0%
45.7%
OT
61.5%
38.9%
Final 5 min
50.0%
48.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
51.8%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2012 | 3 | 12:27 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Apr 1, 2012 | 2 | 09:40 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 4, 2012 | 3 | 11:42 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 4, 2012 | 3 | 07:21 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 4, 2012 | 3 | 01:27 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 14, 2012 | 3 | 05:45 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 14, 2012 | 2 | 17:40 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 21, 2012 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 21, 2012 | 3 | 10:46 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 21, 2012 | 2 | 10:06 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 21, 2012 | 1 | 12:06 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |