Scouting Report
Chris Kelly holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 12 meetings). Kelly wins 53.2% vs right-shot opponents — Stepan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 50.1% vs Stepan 46.6% (+3.6%)
H2H factor
Kelly leads 23-14 in 37 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 54.1%
Defensive zone
Kelly 75.5%
Neutral zone
Kelly 70.9%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 62.8%
62.8%
37.2%
Kelly
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
23
-
14
(37 meetings)
23
14
Kelly
Stepan
Last 10: Kelly 5-5 Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
4
10
Kelly
Stepan
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
9
2
Kelly
Stepan
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
10
2
Kelly
Stepan
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (3,010)
46.5% (10,204)
+4.6%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
48.8% (1,593)
+11.8%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (689)
44.2% (1,368)
+0.5%
On power play, Kelly has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. Kelly is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,370).
Kelly shoots left. Stepan is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,190).
Home / Away
Kelly
Stepan
Home
52.6% (1,965)
47.6% (6,608)
Away
47.4% (1,813)
45.5% (6,573)
By Period
Kelly
Stepan
P1
49.2%
47.5%
P2
49.1%
45.6%
P3
51.9%
46.8%
OT
53.5%
40.7%
Final 5 min
50.3%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.1%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2016 | 2 | 14:49 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 27, 2016 | 1 | 16:56 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Dec 27, 2016 | 1 | 09:00 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 27, 2016 | 3 | 17:22 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 27, 2016 | 2 | 05:20 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 27, 2016 | 1 | 02:32 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 29, 2013 | 3 | 19:14 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 29, 2013 | 3 | 09:56 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 29, 2013 | 3 | 05:46 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 29, 2013 | 3 | 05:39 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 29, 2013 | 2 | 13:49 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 29, 2013 | 1 | 06:06 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 29, 2013 | 1 | 03:36 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 29, 2013 | 1 | 00:52 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 19, 2013 | 2 | 09:03 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 23, 2013 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 19, 2013 | 3 | 10:23 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 19, 2013 | 2 | 06:42 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 19, 2013 | 1 | 16:19 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 1, 2012 | 3 | 12:27 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |