Scouting Report
Derek MacKenzie holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKenzie 51.8% vs Stepan 47.9% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 82.4%
Defensive zone
Stepan 62.7%
Neutral zone
Stepan 72.0%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 74.9%
25.1%
74.9%
MacKenzie
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
MacKenzie
Stepan
Last 8: MacKenzie 2-6 Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
3
MacKenzie
Stepan
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
MacKenzie
Stepan
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
0
2
MacKenzie
Stepan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKenzie
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (438)
47.0% (1,210)
+8.7%
Power Play
80.0% (5)
51.7% (232)
+28.3%
Penalty Kill
41.4% (162)
47.2% (108)
-5.8%
On power play, MacKenzie has a +28.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. MacKenzie is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (265).
MacKenzie shoots left. Stepan is 48.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,079).
Home / Away
MacKenzie
Stepan
Home
51.3% (312)
48.2% (761)
Away
52.9% (293)
47.3% (789)
By Period
MacKenzie
Stepan
P1
50.5%
46.3%
P2
48.8%
50.4%
P3
57.4%
46.3%
Final 5 min
54.2%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
52.1%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2018 | 2 | 00:40 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 19, 2017 | 3 | 19:50 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 19, 2017 | 3 | 07:15 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 19, 2017 | 2 | 19:50 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 19, 2017 | 2 | 19:48 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Dec 19, 2017 | 2 | 01:05 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 19, 2017 | 1 | 14:15 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 19, 2017 | 1 | 13:47 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |