Scouting Report
Dustin Jeffrey holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Jeffrey on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Stepan wins 38.4% vs left-shot opponents — Jeffrey shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 39.9% vs Jeffrey 45.8% (-5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 78.4%
Defensive zone
Stepan 58.7%
Neutral zone
Stepan 64.8%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 65.8%
65.8%
34.2%
Stepan
Jeffrey
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Stepan
Jeffrey
Last 8: Stepan 3-5 Jeffrey
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Jeffrey
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jeffrey
0
1
Stepan
Jeffrey
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Jeffrey
2
4
Stepan
Jeffrey
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Jeffrey
Edge
Even Strength
38.6% (630)
45.9% (207)
-7.3%
Power Play
45.3% (64)
26.9% (26)
+18.4%
Penalty Kill
22.7% (22)
42.9% (7)
-20.2%
On penalty kill, Jeffrey has a +20.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jeffrey shoots left. Stepan is 38.4% vs left-shot opponents (492).
Stepan shoots right. Jeffrey is 39.4% vs right-shot opponents (66).
Home / Away
Stepan
Jeffrey
Home
39.0% (364)
45.7% (116)
Away
38.0% (355)
42.7% (131)
By Period
Stepan
Jeffrey
P1
39.4%
42.5%
P2
40.6%
48.4%
P3
36.4%
39.7%
OT
12.5%
66.7%
Final 5 min
40.4%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
38.5%
Jeffrey
60.0%▲
54.5%
44.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2011 | 1 | 15:04 | Neutral | Dustin Jeffrey |
| Mar 20, 2011 | 1 | 09:27 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 20, 2011 | 1 | 06:16 | Defensive | Dustin Jeffrey |
| Feb 1, 2011 | 2 | 19:01 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 1, 2011 | 2 | 02:41 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 1, 2011 | 1 | 12:20 | Neutral | Dustin Jeffrey |
| Feb 1, 2011 | 1 | 04:24 | Neutral | Dustin Jeffrey |
| Dec 15, 2010 | 3 | 09:09 | Neutral | Dustin Jeffrey |